98% Flash a Myth?

Neil Fraser, webmaster of Digital Routes, a web design and hosting company based in Scotland, wondered how accurate the Macromedia claim is that Flash has a 98% market saturation, although that saturation was never said to be only of the latest version. Determined to test Macromedia's figures, Fraser did a survey of his own clients' user access logs over a period of seven months (January 1, 2004 - July 1, 2004). The results of his survey yielded a weighted average of 40% saturation across all their Flash-enabled sites. (Fraser defines saturation here as users who had the player installed on their machines and did not need to download it.) It is worth noting that Fraser's survey was of a small sample, probably much smaller than Macromedia's.

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